Global economic activity has proven resilient once again. The technology upturn, buffers, and adaptations have helped mitigate the damage from geopolitics-driven disruptions, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Global growth is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2026 and rebound to 3.4 percent in 2027. Global headline inflation is projected to rise notably to 4.7 percent in 2026 before easing to 4.1 percent in 2027.
Energy-importing economies outside the technology value chain face the most difficult outlook.
Further escalation in conflicts, a reassessment of expectations surrounding artificial intelligence (AI), renewed trade tensions, and fiscal vulnerabilities could weaken growth.
Fiscal frameworks must deliver better results when dealing with disruptive shocks and building policy space through revenue measures.
Over time, spillovers can be positive, thanks to cross-border knowledge transfer, but lower revenues can constrain public investment domestically, particularly in emerging market and developing economies.
IMF Growth Forecast 2026
| World Economic Outlook Growth Projections |
| (Real GDP, annual percentage change) | Projections | ||
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | |
| World Output | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.4 |
| Advanced Economies | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| United States (US) | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| Euro Area | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Germany | 0.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| France | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| Italy | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Spain | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.8 |
| Japan | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| United Kingdom (UK) | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Canada | 1.9 | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Other Advanced Economies | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.7 |
| Emerging Markets and Developing Economies | |||
| Emerging and Developing Asia | 5.6 | 5.1 | 4.9 |
| China | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.0 |
| India | 7.8 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| Emerging and Developing Europe | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2.1 |
| Russia | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Latin America and The Carribean | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| Brazil | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| Mexico | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Middle East and Central Asia | 3.7 | -0.3 | 6.3 |
| Saudi Arabia | 4.6 | -3.3 | 7.9 |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Nigeria | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.3 |
| South Africa | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Memorandum | |||
| Emerging Markets and Middle-Income Economies | 4.5 | 3.6 | 4.4 |
| Low-Income Developing Countries | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2026 |
